Toronto FC vs New York City FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Toronto FC and 1.55 for New York City FC, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Toronto FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

63.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.65 – 1.55

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Toronto FC home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
New York City FC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Toronto FC win40%

Draw23%

New York City FC win36%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

60%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals40%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

1–110.4%
2–18.6%
1–28.1%
1–06.7%
2–26.7%

Recent form

Toronto FC

2026-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · H vs CF Montreal · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-27T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Nashville SC · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-20T00:30:00.000Z · A vs St. Louis City · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-12T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Orlando City SC · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-09T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Nashville SC · 2-1 (W)

New York City FC

2026-09-26T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlanta United FC · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-18T23:30:00.000Z · H vs New York Red Bulls · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Salt Lake · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-10T00:00:00.000Z · H vs New England Revolution · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-04T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Nashville SC · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-08-29T23:30:00.000Z · Toronto FC 1-1 New York City FC (Major League Soccer)
2026-07-31T23:30:00.000Z · Toronto FC 1-1 New York City FC (Major League Soccer)
2025-07-03T23:30:00.000Z · Toronto FC 1-3 New York City FC (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-26T18:30:00.000Z · Toronto FC 0-1 New York City FC (Major League Soccer)
2024-05-11T23:30:00.000Z · Toronto FC 2-3 New York City FC (Major League Soccer)
2024-03-16T23:30:00.000Z · Toronto FC 1-2 New York City FC (Major League Soccer)
2023-09-24T17:00:00.000Z · Toronto FC 0-3 New York City FC (Major League Soccer)
2023-07-26T23:30:00.000Z · Toronto FC 0-5 New York City FC (Leagues Cup)
2023-04-29T23:30:00.000Z · Toronto FC 1-0 New York City FC (Major League Soccer)
2022-04-24T21:00:00.000Z · Toronto FC 4-5 New York City FC (Major League Soccer)

Major League Soccer table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	28	15	6	7	31	51
2	St. Louis City	28	14	8	6	16	50
3	FC Dallas	28	13	8	7	7	47
4	San Jose Earthquakes	28	13	7	8	10	46
5	Houston Dynamo	28	13	6	9	2	45
6	Los Angeles FC	29	11	9	9	13	42
7	Seattle Sounders	28	11	8	9	3	41
8	Colorado Rapids	28	11	4	13	0	37
9	Los Angeles Galaxy	29	9	9	11	-11	36
10	Portland Timbers	28	9	6	13	-3	33
11	Real Salt Lake	28	9	5	14	-5	32
12	San Diego	28	8	8	12	-3	32
13	Austin	28	7	10	11	-15	31
14	Minnesota United FC	28	7	9	12	-9	30
15	Sporting Kansas City	28	6	4	18	-33	22
1	Nashville SC	28	19	6	3	37	63
2	Inter Miami	28	13	10	5	18	49
3	Chicago Fire	28	14	6	8	11	48
4	New England Revolution	28	14	4	10	6	46
5	Charlotte	28	13	7	8	10	46
6	Philadelphia Union	28	12	6	10	11	42
7	Orlando City SC	28	11	4	13	-15	37
8	New York Red Bulls	28	10	6	12	-14	36
9	FC Cincinnati	27	9	9	9	-7	36
10	New York City FC	28	8	9	11	4	33
11	Toronto FC	28	7	11	10	-11	32
12	DC United	27	6	12	9	-12	30
13	Columbus Crew	28	8	5	15	-5	29
14	Atlanta United FC	28	7	6	15	-15	27
15	CF Montreal	28	6	6	16	-21	24

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.