York Lions Stadium · Analysis updated 15:59 UTC
Toronto II vs Columbus Crew II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Toronto II and 1.87 for Columbus Crew II, a combined total of 3.65. That distribution gives Columbus Crew II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
62.5% probability
Expected goals
1.78 – 1.87
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Toronto II home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Columbus Crew II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Columbus Crew II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 37% / 22% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.78 goals for Toronto II and 1.87 for Columbus Crew II, a combined 3.65 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.6%
- 1–28.1%
- 2–17.7%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–35.0%
Recent form
Toronto II
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs New England II · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Orlando City II · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Columbus Crew II · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-04T23:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Cincinnati II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-28T23:00:00.000Z · H vs New York City II · 2-0 (W)
Columbus Crew II
- 2026-08-23T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Huntsville City · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-15T22:00:00.000Z · H vs New York City II · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-08T22:00:00.000Z · H vs New York RB II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-26T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Connecticut FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-18T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Philadelphia Union II · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
MLS Next Pro table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 62.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.