Stadion Ramaz Shengelia · Referee A. Aptsiauri · Analysis updated 21:58 UTC
Torpedo Kutaisi vs FC Iberia 1999 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Torpedo Kutaisi and 1.25 for FC Iberia 1999, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Torpedo Kutaisi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.5% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Torpedo Kutaisi home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Iberia 1999 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 1–010.2%
- 0–19.8%
- 2–18.2%
- 1–27.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.1%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.50 | 60.3% | 62.2% | 1.61 | +1.9 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.73 | 52.3% | 53.1% | 1.88 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Home | 2.40 | 37.2% | 37.8% | 2.65 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Away | 2.55 | 35.0% | 35.5% | 2.82 | +0.5 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.90 | 47.7% | 46.9% | 2.13 | -0.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 74.1% | 73.3% | 1.36 | -0.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.38 | 65.5% | 64.5% | 1.55 | -1.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.20 | 27.9% | 26.7% | 3.75 | -1.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Torpedo Kutaisi
- 2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Rustavi · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Spaeri · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Batumi · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Samgurali · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-10T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Gagra · 1-1 (D)
FC Iberia 1999
- 2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Mjallby AIF · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Dila · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs St. Truiden · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Meshakhte · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Tbilisi · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T17:00:00.000Z · Torpedo Kutaisi 4-3 FC Iberia 1999 (Erovnuli Liga)
- 2026-07-01T16:00:00.000Z · Torpedo Kutaisi 2-2 FC Iberia 1999 (Super Cup)
- 2026-05-10T15:00:00.000Z · Torpedo Kutaisi 1-1 FC Iberia 1999 (Erovnuli Liga)
- 2026-03-11T16:00:00.000Z · Torpedo Kutaisi 1-0 FC Iberia 1999 (Erovnuli Liga)
- 2025-10-21T16:00:00.000Z · Torpedo Kutaisi 3-1 FC Iberia 1999 (Erovnuli Liga)
- 2025-08-13T16:00:00.000Z · Torpedo Kutaisi 1-2 FC Iberia 1999 (David Kipiani Cup)
- 2025-08-09T16:00:00.000Z · Torpedo Kutaisi 0-0 FC Iberia 1999 (Erovnuli Liga)
- 2025-07-01T16:00:00.000Z · Torpedo Kutaisi 0-0 FC Iberia 1999 (Super Cup)
- 2025-04-28T17:00:00.000Z · Torpedo Kutaisi 0-1 FC Iberia 1999 (Erovnuli Liga)
- 2025-03-05T15:00:00.000Z · Torpedo Kutaisi 0-2 FC Iberia 1999 (Erovnuli Liga)
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Batumi | 30 | 16 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 56 |
| 2 | Dinamo Tbilisi | 30 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 54 |
| 3 | FC Iberia 1999 | 29 | 16 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 52 |
| 4 | Rustavi | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 52 |
| 5 | Dila | 30 | 12 | 4 | 14 | 3 | 40 |
| 6 | Samgurali | 30 | 11 | 5 | 14 | -12 | 38 |
| 7 | Torpedo Kutaisi | 29 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 37 |
| 8 | Gagra | 30 | 6 | 12 | 12 | -17 | 30 |
| 9 | Spaeri | 30 | 5 | 12 | 13 | -11 | 27 |
| 10 | Meshakhte | 30 | 3 | 11 | 16 | -26 | 20 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.