Ramaz Shengelia Stadium · Analysis updated 14:31 UTC
Torpedo Kutaisi vs Rustavi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.21 expected goals for Torpedo Kutaisi and 1.11 for Rustavi, a combined total of 2.32. That distribution gives Torpedo Kutaisi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.7% probability
Expected goals
1.21 – 1.11
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Torpedo Kutaisi home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rustavi away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.2%
- 1–011.9%
- 0–110.9%
- 0–09.9%
- 2–18.0%
Recent form
Torpedo Kutaisi
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Spaeri · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Batumi · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Samgurali · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-10T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Gagra · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Tbilisi · 1-1 (D)
Rustavi
- 2026-09-21T15:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Iberia 1999 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Meshakhte · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Spaeri · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Batumi · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Samgurali · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-07T16:00:00.000Z · Torpedo Kutaisi 0-1 Rustavi (Erovnuli Liga)
- 2026-05-05T16:00:00.000Z · Torpedo Kutaisi 1-1 Rustavi (Erovnuli Liga)
- 2026-03-07T15:00:00.000Z · Torpedo Kutaisi 0-1 Rustavi (Erovnuli Liga)
- 2022-10-12T16:00:00.000Z · Torpedo Kutaisi 4-2 Rustavi (David Kipiani Cup)
- 2019-10-27T10:00:00.000Z · Torpedo Kutaisi 0-2 Rustavi (Erovnuli Liga)
- 2019-08-11T13:30:00.000Z · Torpedo Kutaisi 0-1 Rustavi (Erovnuli Liga)
- 2019-05-20T15:00:00.000Z · Torpedo Kutaisi 4-2 Rustavi (Erovnuli Liga)
- 2019-03-31T10:00:00.000Z · Torpedo Kutaisi 2-0 Rustavi (Erovnuli Liga)
- 2018-10-21T14:00:00.000Z · Torpedo Kutaisi 2-2 Rustavi (Erovnuli Liga)
- 2018-09-12T12:30:00.000Z · Torpedo Kutaisi 0-0 Rustavi (Erovnuli Liga)
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rustavi | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 49 |
| 2 | FC Iberia 1999 | 28 | 15 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 49 |
| 3 | Dinamo Tbilisi | 27 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 15 | 48 |
| 4 | Dinamo Batumi | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 47 |
| 5 | Dila | 28 | 12 | 4 | 12 | 6 | 40 |
| 6 | Torpedo Kutaisi | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 36 |
| 7 | Samgurali | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | -14 | 32 |
| 8 | Gagra | 27 | 6 | 11 | 10 | -12 | 29 |
| 9 | Spaeri | 27 | 5 | 10 | 12 | -9 | 25 |
| 10 | Meshakhte | 28 | 2 | 11 | 15 | -25 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.