Stadion Ramaz Shengelia · Referee G. Avazashvili · Analysis updated 13:10 UTC
Torpedo Kutaisi vs Samgurali Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.39 expected goals for Torpedo Kutaisi and 1.22 for Samgurali, a combined total of 3.61. That distribution gives Torpedo Kutaisi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Torpedo Kutaisi win
63.1% probability
Expected goals
2.39 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Torpedo Kutaisi home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Samgurali away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Torpedo Kutaisi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 19% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.39 goals for Torpedo Kutaisi and 1.22 for Samgurali, a combined 3.61 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.4%
- 1–17.9%
- 2–07.7%
- 3–17.5%
- 1–06.5%
Recent form
Torpedo Kutaisi
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Spaeri · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Batumi · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Samgurali · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-10T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Gagra · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Tbilisi · 1-1 (D)
Samgurali
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Tbilisi · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Torpedo Kutaisi · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Dila · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Iberia 1999 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rustavi · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rustavi | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 49 |
| 2 | FC Iberia 1999 | 28 | 15 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 49 |
| 3 | Dinamo Tbilisi | 27 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 15 | 48 |
| 4 | Dinamo Batumi | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 47 |
| 5 | Dila | 28 | 12 | 4 | 12 | 6 | 40 |
| 6 | Torpedo Kutaisi | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 36 |
| 7 | Samgurali | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | -14 | 32 |
| 8 | Gagra | 27 | 6 | 11 | 10 | -12 | 29 |
| 9 | Spaeri | 27 | 5 | 10 | 12 | -9 | 25 |
| 10 | Meshakhte | 28 | 2 | 11 | 15 | -25 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Torpedo Kutaisi win, at 63.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.