Trud stadium · Analysis updated 16:16 UTC
Torpedo Miass vs Amkar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.55 expected goals for Torpedo Miass and 2.45 for Amkar, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Amkar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 79%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 79% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Amkar win
79.2% probability
Expected goals
0.55 – 2.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Torpedo Miass home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Amkar away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Amkar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 79%, against 6% / 14% / 79% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.55 goals for Torpedo Miass and 2.45 for Amkar, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
21%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
94%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–214.9%
- 0–312.2%
- 0–112.2%
- 1–28.2%
- 0–47.5%
Recent form
Torpedo Miass
- 2026-09-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Tyumen · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Irtysh Omsk · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Zenit 2 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Stavropol · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-26T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Volna Nizhegorodskaya · 0-1 (L)
Amkar
- 2026-08-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Kirov · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-08-22T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Torpedo Miass · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-16T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Stavropol · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Moskva II · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second League A - Division A Silver table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zenit 2 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 27 | 32 |
| 2 | Amkar | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 22 |
| 3 | Tyumen | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 22 |
| 4 | Torpedo Miass | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 19 |
| 5 | Dinamo Stavropol | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 11 |
| 6 | Dinamo Moskva II | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -22 | 8 |
| 7 | Irtysh Omsk | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -17 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Amkar win, at 79.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 79% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.