Torpedo Moskva vs Spartak Kostroma Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.49 expected goals for Torpedo Moskva and 0.90 for Spartak Kostroma, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives Torpedo Moskva the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Torpedo Moskva win

51.0% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.49 – 0.90

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Torpedo Moskva home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Spartak Kostroma away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Torpedo Moskva to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 26% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.49 goals for Torpedo Moskva and 0.90 for Spartak Kostroma, a combined 2.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Torpedo Moskva win51%

Draw26%

Spartak Kostroma win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

49%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals43%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score46%

Correct score

1–013.7%
1–112.3%
2–010.2%
0–09.2%
2–19.1%

Recent form

Torpedo Moskva

2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Torpedo Zhodino · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-27T09:30:00.000Z · A vs FC UFA · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Veles · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Nizhny Novgorod · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Shinnik Yaroslavl · 0-2 (L)

Spartak Kostroma

2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Volga Ulyanovsk · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Neftekhimik · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ryazan · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Chelyabinsk · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-31T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Rotor Volgograd · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

First League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Nizhny Novgorod	14	12	1	1	28	37
2	FC Sochi	14	9	2	3	9	29
3	Torpedo Moskva	14	8	3	3	15	27
4	Spartak Kostroma	14	8	3	3	7	27
5	Veles	15	8	3	4	2	27
6	Ural	14	7	4	3	12	25
7	FC UFA	14	5	6	3	4	21
8	Shinnik Yaroslavl	14	4	8	2	4	20
9	Rotor Volgograd	14	5	3	6	5	18
10	Volga Ulyanovsk	15	5	3	7	-2	18
11	Arsenal Tula	14	4	4	6	-11	16
12	Chelyabinsk	14	4	3	7	-5	15
13	Enisey	14	3	5	6	-11	14
14	KAMAZ	14	3	4	7	-7	13
15	Leningradets	14	3	4	7	-14	13
16	FK Neftekhimik	14	4	0	10	-11	12
17	Tekstilshchik	14	2	4	8	-12	10
18	Ska-khabarovsk	14	1	4	9	-13	7

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Torpedo Moskva win, at 51.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.