Stadion Torpedo · Analysis updated 14:34 UTC
Torpedo Zhodino vs FC Dnepr Mogilev Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Torpedo Zhodino and 1.37 for FC Dnepr Mogilev, a combined total of 2.67. That distribution gives FC Dnepr Mogilev the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.8% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Torpedo Zhodino home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
FC Dnepr Mogilev away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Dnepr Mogilev to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 35% / 26% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Torpedo Zhodino and 1.37 for FC Dnepr Mogilev, a combined 2.67 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.3%
- 0–19.5%
- 1–09.0%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–18.0%
Recent form
Torpedo Zhodino
- 2026-10-25T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Slavia Mozyr · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Naftan · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-15T17:30:00.000Z · A vs ML Vitebsk · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T10:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Minsk · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Torpedo Moskva · 1-2 (L)
FC Dnepr Mogilev
- 2026-10-25T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Arsenal · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bate Borisov · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Minsk · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Brest · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs ML Vitebsk · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.