Estádio Manuel Marques · Referee Marcio Torres, Portugal · Analysis updated 14:19 UTC
Torreense vs Penafiel Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Torreense and 1.72 for Penafiel, a combined total of 2.82. That distribution gives Penafiel the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Penafiel win
51.9% probability
Expected goals
1.10 – 1.72
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Torreense home form
2 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Penafiel away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.3%
- 0–110.3%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–28.8%
- 1–06.6%
Recent form
Torreense
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Lillestrom · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Leixoes · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Benfica B · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Vizela · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Lusitânia Lourosa · 2-2 (D)
Penafiel
- 2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo La Coruna · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Oliveirense · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Felgueiras 1932 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Academica · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Porto B · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T17:00:00.000Z · Torreense 2-2 Penafiel (Segunda Liga)
- 2026-05-04T17:00:00.000Z · Torreense 3-2 Penafiel (Segunda Liga)
- 2025-12-21T18:00:00.000Z · Torreense 0-1 Penafiel (Segunda Liga)
- 2025-05-05T17:00:00.000Z · Torreense 1-0 Penafiel (Segunda Liga)
- 2024-12-22T15:30:00.000Z · Torreense 0-1 Penafiel (Segunda Liga)
- 2024-05-16T19:15:00.000Z · Torreense 1-1 Penafiel (Segunda Liga)
- 2024-01-15T20:45:00.000Z · Torreense 1-0 Penafiel (Segunda Liga)
- 2023-05-21T14:30:00.000Z · Torreense 5-1 Penafiel (Segunda Liga)
- 2023-01-14T11:00:00.000Z · Torreense 0-0 Penafiel (Segunda Liga)
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
| 2 | Sporting CP B | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 3 | Farense | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 4 | Penafiel | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 13 |
| 5 | Benfica B | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Academica | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 7 | Tondela | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Vizela | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | União de Leiria | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | Leixoes | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 11 | Portimonense | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | AVS | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 13 | FC Porto B | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 7 |
| 14 | Felgueiras 1932 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Torreense | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 16 | Amarante | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 17 | Chaves | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 5 |
| 18 | Feirense | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Penafiel win, at 51.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.