Estadio Las Veredillas · Analysis updated 15:34 UTC
Torrejón vs Alcobendas Sport Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Torrejón and 0.95 for Alcobendas Sport, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Torrejón the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Torrejón win
56.1% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Torrejón home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Alcobendas Sport away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.8%
- 1–111.2%
- 2–010.3%
- 2–19.8%
- 0–06.7%
Recent form
Torrejón
- 2026-08-28T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Getafe II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-24T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Las Rozas · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-17T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Las Rozas · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-10T09:30:00.000Z · H vs AD Parla · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-03T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Alcorcón II · 1-0 (W)
Alcobendas Sport
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Parla Escuela · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Villanueva Pardillo · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Unión Adarve · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Torrejón · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Fuenlabrada · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-26T09:30:00.000Z · Torrejón 3-3 Alcobendas Sport (Tercera División RFEF - Group 7)
- 2025-12-20T16:00:00.000Z · Torrejón 2-1 Alcobendas Sport (Tercera División RFEF - Group 7)
- 2025-02-09T10:30:00.000Z · Torrejón 1-1 Alcobendas Sport (Tercera División RFEF - Group 7)
- 2024-09-28T17:00:00.000Z · Torrejón 1-0 Alcobendas Sport (Tercera División RFEF - Group 7)
- 2024-03-24T10:30:00.000Z · Torrejón 1-3 Alcobendas Sport (Tercera División RFEF - Group 7)
- 2023-11-05T11:00:00.000Z · Torrejón 2-2 Alcobendas Sport (Tercera División RFEF - Group 7)
- 2023-04-16T09:30:00.000Z · Torrejón 2-0 Alcobendas Sport (Tercera División RFEF - Group 7)
- 2022-12-18T10:30:00.000Z · Torrejón 2-0 Alcobendas Sport (Tercera División RFEF - Group 7)
- 2022-02-13T16:00:00.000Z · Torrejón 1-1 Alcobendas Sport (Tercera División RFEF - Group 7)
- 2021-10-10T09:30:00.000Z · Torrejón 4-1 Alcobendas Sport (Tercera División RFEF - Group 7)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Las Rozas | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 2 | Móstoles | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Colonia Moscardó | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 13 |
| 4 | Cala Pozuelo | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 5 | Unión Adarve | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Trival Valderas | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Pozuelo Alarcón | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 12 |
| 8 | Galapagar | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | Torrejón | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 |
| 10 | Leganés II | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 11 | Fuenlabrada | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | RC Alcobendas | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Alcobendas Sport | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | Real Aranjuez | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 15 | Parla Escuela | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 16 | SS Reyes II | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 17 | Rayo Vallecano II | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 4 |
| 18 | Villanueva Pardillo | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -12 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Torrejón win, at 56.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.