· Analysis updated 14:59 UTC
Torrejón vs Móstoles Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.11 expected goals for Torrejón and 1.01 for Móstoles, a combined total of 2.12. That distribution gives Torrejón the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.6% probability
Expected goals
1.11 – 1.01
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Torrejón home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Móstoles away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Torrejón to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 30% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.11 goals for Torrejón and 1.01 for Móstoles, a combined 2.12 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.5%
- 1–013.4%
- 0–112.1%
- 0–012.0%
- 2–17.5%
Recent form
Torrejón
- 2026-10-18T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Parla Escuela · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Villanueva Pardillo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Unión Adarve · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Móstoles · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Fuenlabrada · 1-3 (L)
Móstoles
- 2026-05-10T09:30:00.000Z · A vs A Madrid III · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-03T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Villanueva Pardillo · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Pozuelo Alarcón · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-19T09:45:00.000Z · H vs Leganés II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-12T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Trival Valderas · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Las Rozas | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 2 | Móstoles | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Colonia Moscardó | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 13 |
| 4 | Cala Pozuelo | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 5 | Unión Adarve | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Trival Valderas | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Pozuelo Alarcón | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 12 |
| 8 | Galapagar | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | Torrejón | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 |
| 10 | Leganés II | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 11 | Fuenlabrada | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | RC Alcobendas | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Alcobendas Sport | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | Real Aranjuez | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 15 | Parla Escuela | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 16 | SS Reyes II | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 17 | Rayo Vallecano II | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 4 |
| 18 | Villanueva Pardillo | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -12 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.