Polideportivo Isabel Fernández · Analysis updated 17:36 UTC
Torrellano vs Alzira Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Torrellano and 1.18 for Alzira, a combined total of 2.34. That distribution gives Alzira the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.6% probability
Expected goals
1.16 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Torrellano home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Alzira away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Alzira to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 35% / 28% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.16 goals for Torrellano and 1.18 for Alzira, a combined 2.34 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.2%
- 0–111.4%
- 1–011.2%
- 0–09.7%
- 1–27.8%
Recent form
Torrellano
- 2026-10-11T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Soneja · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Acero · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Vall de Uxó · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Hércules II · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Torrent · 1-2 (L)
Alzira
- 2026-05-09T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Buñol · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-02T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Utiel · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Vall de Uxó · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Saguntino · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Jove Español · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-22T10:30:00.000Z · Torrellano 3-0 Alzira (Tercera División RFEF - Group 6)
- 2025-11-09T16:00:00.000Z · Torrellano 1-1 Alzira (Tercera División RFEF - Group 6)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Villarreal III | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 18 |
| 2 | Levante II | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 17 |
| 3 | Vall de Uxó | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 15 |
| 4 | Hércules II | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 5 | Torrent | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Crevillente | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 | Eldense B | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Roda | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | Acero | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 10 | Saguntino | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 11 | Atzeneta | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Soneja | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 13 | SC Torrevieja | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 14 | Ontinyent 1931 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 15 | Jove Español | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 6 |
| 16 | Buñol | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Torrellano | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 18 | Utiel | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.