Polideportivo Municipal Abdon Martínez Fariñas · Analysis updated 20:20 UTC
Torreperogil vs Alhaurino Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Torreperogil and 1.00 for Alhaurino, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Torreperogil the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.5% probability
Expected goals
1.10 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Torreperogil home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Alhaurino away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Torreperogil to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 30% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.10 goals for Torreperogil and 1.00 for Alhaurino, a combined 2.10 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.5%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–012.2%
- 0–112.2%
- 2–07.4%
Recent form
Torreperogil
- 2026-05-10T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Torre del Mar · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs El Palo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-26T10:00:00.000Z · A vs UD San Pedro · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Alhaurino · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Ciudad de Torredonjimeno · 0-3 (L)
Alhaurino
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Melilla · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Motril · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Churriana Vega · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Almería II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Granada II · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-19T16:30:00.000Z · Torreperogil 2-0 Alhaurino (Tercera División RFEF - Group 9)
- 2025-12-14T11:15:00.000Z · Torreperogil 0-1 Alhaurino (Tercera División RFEF - Group 9)
- 2022-01-06T16:00:00.000Z · Torreperogil 2-0 Alhaurino (Tercera División RFEF - Group 9)
- 2021-09-12T10:15:00.000Z · Torreperogil 1-4 Alhaurino (Tercera División RFEF - Group 9)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melilla | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 21 |
| 2 | Arenas Armilla | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 18 |
| 3 | Almería II | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 4 | Motril | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 | Málaga II | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 14 |
| 6 | Ciudad de Torredonjimeno | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Marbelli | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | UD San Pedro | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 9 | Churriana Vega | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 | Granada II | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| 11 | Atlético Porcuna | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 11 |
| 12 | Alhaurino | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 | Torre del Mar | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 14 | Huétor Vega | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 7 |
| 15 | Atletico de Marbella | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 | Mancha Real | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 17 | Cantoria | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Malaga City | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -16 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.