Torreperogil vs Granada II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Torreperogil and 0.85 for Granada II, a combined total of 2.05. That distribution gives Torreperogil the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

73.9% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.20 – 0.85

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Torreperogil home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Granada II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Torreperogil to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 30% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Torreperogil and 0.85 for Granada II, a combined 2.05 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Torreperogil win44%

Draw30%

Granada II win26%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

70%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals61%

Over 2.5 goals34%

Over 3.5 goals15%

Both teams to score40%

Correct score

1–015.4%
1–113.1%
0–012.9%
0–110.9%
2–09.3%

Recent form

Torreperogil

2026-05-10T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Torre del Mar · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs El Palo · 0-2 (L)
2026-04-26T10:00:00.000Z · A vs UD San Pedro · 0-0 (D)
2026-04-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Alhaurino · 2-0 (W)
2026-04-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Ciudad de Torredonjimeno · 0-3 (L)

Granada II

2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Cantoria · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Porcuna · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs UD San Pedro · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Alhaurino · 0-0 (D)
2026-05-10T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Mijas Las Lagunas · 4-4 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Melilla	6	6	0	0	10	18
2	Arenas Armilla	6	4	2	0	8	14
3	Almería II	6	4	1	1	7	13
4	Marbelli	6	4	1	1	3	13
5	Motril	6	3	3	0	4	12
6	Málaga II	6	3	1	2	6	10
7	Granada II	6	3	1	2	4	10
8	Churriana Vega	6	3	0	3	3	9
9	UD San Pedro	6	3	0	3	-3	9
10	Ciudad de Torredonjimeno	6	2	2	2	1	8
11	Torre del Mar	6	2	1	3	0	7
12	Alhaurino	6	2	1	3	-2	7
13	Atlético Porcuna	6	2	1	3	-8	7
14	Huétor Vega	6	1	2	3	-4	5
15	Atletico de Marbella	6	1	1	4	-4	4
16	Cantoria	6	0	3	3	-6	3
17	Mancha Real	6	0	2	4	-7	2
18	Malaga City	6	0	0	6	-12	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 73.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.

A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.