· Analysis updated 06:08 UTC
Torrijos vs Quintanar del Rey Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.92 expected goals for Torrijos and 0.70 for Quintanar del Rey, a combined total of 2.61. That distribution gives Torrijos the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Torrijos win
66.3% probability
Expected goals
1.92 – 0.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Torrijos home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Torrijos to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 21% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.92 goals for Torrijos and 0.70 for Quintanar del Rey, a combined 2.61 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 49% and both teams to score at 43%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.0%
- 2–013.4%
- 1–19.8%
- 2–19.4%
- 3–08.6%
Recent form
Torrijos
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Noblejas · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Villarrubia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Quintanar del Rey · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Socuéllamos · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Tarancón · 1-0 (W)
Quintanar del Rey
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchego | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 2 | Torrijos | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Illescas | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 4 | Toledo | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 13 |
| 5 | Villarrobledo | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 6 | Tarancón | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 13 |
| 7 | CD Villa | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 8 | Almansa | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 9 | Villacañas | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 | Marchamalo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 11 | Noblejas | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 12 | San Clemente | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 | Villarrubia | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 14 | La Solana | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 6 |
| 15 | Quintanar del Rey | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
| 16 | Socuéllamos | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 17 | Guadalajara II | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 2 |
| 18 | Huracán Balazote | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Torrijos win, at 66.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.