Torrijos vs Tarancón Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Torrijos and 0.87 for Tarancón, a combined total of 2.46. That distribution gives Torrijos the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Torrijos win

54.1% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.58 – 0.87

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Torrijos home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tarancón away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Torrijos win54%

Draw25%

Tarancón win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

46%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals45%

Over 3.5 goals23%

Both teams to score46%

Correct score

1–013.6%
1–111.8%
2–010.8%
2–19.4%
0–08.6%

Recent form

Torrijos

2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Noblejas · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Villarrubia · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Quintanar del Rey · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Socuéllamos · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Tarancón · 1-0 (W)

Tarancón

2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Guadalajara II · 6-2 (W)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs CD Villa · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Torrijos · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Illescas · 0-1 (L)
2026-05-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Manchego · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

2024-03-02T16:00:00.000Z · Torrijos 2-0 Tarancón (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)
2023-10-15T15:00:00.000Z · Torrijos 0-0 Tarancón (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)
2023-04-08T15:00:00.000Z · Torrijos 3-2 Tarancón (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)
2022-12-11T15:00:00.000Z · Torrijos 0-1 Tarancón (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)
2022-02-19T16:00:00.000Z · Torrijos 1-2 Tarancón (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)
2021-10-23T15:00:00.000Z · Torrijos 5-0 Tarancón (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)
2021-02-06T15:00:00.000Z · Torrijos 1-1 Tarancón (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)
2020-11-15T10:30:00.000Z · Torrijos 0-2 Tarancón (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)
2020-02-22T15:30:00.000Z · Torrijos 2-2 Tarancón (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)
2019-09-29T09:30:00.000Z · Torrijos 1-0 Tarancón (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Manchego	6	5	0	1	4	15
2	Torrijos	6	4	2	0	8	14
3	Illescas	6	4	2	0	5	14
4	Toledo	6	4	1	1	8	13
5	Villarrobledo	6	3	3	0	7	12
6	CD Villa	6	4	0	2	3	12
7	Almansa	6	3	1	2	5	10
8	Tarancón	6	3	1	2	4	10
9	Villacañas	6	2	2	2	2	8
10	Marchamalo	6	2	2	2	1	8
11	San Clemente	6	2	2	2	-2	8
12	Noblejas	6	2	1	3	-5	7
13	Quintanar del Rey	6	1	2	3	-5	5
14	Socuéllamos	6	0	4	2	-3	4
15	La Solana	6	1	0	5	-6	3
16	Villarrubia	6	0	3	3	-7	3
17	Guadalajara II	6	0	2	4	-7	2
18	Huracán Balazote	6	0	0	6	-12	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Torrijos win, at 54.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.

A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.