TOŠK Tešanj vs Rudar Kakanj Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for TOŠK Tešanj and 0.77 for Rudar Kakanj, a combined total of 2.13. That distribution gives TOŠK Tešanj the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

TOŠK Tešanj win

50.4% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.35 – 0.77

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

TOŠK Tešanj home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rudar Kakanj away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates TOŠK Tešanj to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 28% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for TOŠK Tešanj and 0.77 for Rudar Kakanj, a combined 2.13 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

TOŠK Tešanj win50%

Draw28%

Rudar Kakanj win22%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

50%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals63%

Over 2.5 goals36%

Over 3.5 goals17%

Both teams to score40%

Correct score

1–016.1%
1–112.5%
0–011.9%
2–010.9%
0–19.3%

Recent form

TOŠK Tešanj

2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Igman Konjic · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bratstvo Gračanica · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Stupčanica Olovo · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Jedinstvo Bihać · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Travnik · 1-2 (L)

Rudar Kakanj

2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Budućnost Banovići · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tomislav · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitez · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Posušje · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Čapljina · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1st League - FBiH table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Posušje	11	8	3	0	10	27
2	Travnik	11	8	1	2	12	25
3	Sloboda Tuzla	11	6	3	2	10	21
4	Stupčanica Olovo	11	6	2	3	13	20
5	Igman Konjic	11	5	4	2	4	19
6	GOŠK Gabela	10	5	2	3	5	17
7	Bratstvo Gračanica	10	3	5	2	0	14
8	TOŠK Tešanj	10	4	2	4	0	14
9	Jedinstvo Bihać	11	3	4	4	1	13
10	Vitez	11	3	3	5	-5	12
11	Zvijezda Gradačac	11	3	2	6	1	11
12	Radnik Hadžići	11	3	1	7	-6	10
13	Budućnost Banovići	11	2	4	5	-9	10
14	Rudar Kakanj	10	2	2	6	-8	8
15	Čapljina	11	2	2	7	-13	8
16	Tomislav	11	2	2	7	-15	8

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is TOŠK Tešanj win, at 50.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.