· Analysis updated 09:17 UTC
TOŠK Tešanj vs Rudar Prijedor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for TOŠK Tešanj and 1.18 for Rudar Prijedor, a combined total of 3.08. That distribution gives TOŠK Tešanj the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
TOŠK Tešanj win
54.2% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
TOŠK Tešanj home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rudar Prijedor away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates TOŠK Tešanj to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 22% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for TOŠK Tešanj and 1.18 for Rudar Prijedor, a combined 3.08 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–08.7%
- 2–08.3%
- 3–16.2%
Recent form
TOŠK Tešanj
- 2026-10-25T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Rudar Kakanj · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Čapljina · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Igman Konjic · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bratstvo Gračanica · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Stupčanica Olovo · 2-0 (W)
Rudar Prijedor
- 2026-10-21T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Famos Vojkovići · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Zvijezda 09 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Kozara Gradiška · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Omarska · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Laktaši · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is TOŠK Tešanj win, at 54.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.