· Analysis updated 15:21 UTC
TOŠK Tešanj vs Tomislav Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.28 expected goals for TOŠK Tešanj and 1.11 for Tomislav, a combined total of 3.38. That distribution gives TOŠK Tešanj the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
TOŠK Tešanj win
63.6% probability
Expected goals
2.28 – 1.11
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
TOŠK Tešanj home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tomislav away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates TOŠK Tešanj to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 19% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.28 goals for TOŠK Tešanj and 1.11 for Tomislav, a combined 3.38 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.7%
- 2–08.8%
- 1–18.6%
- 1–07.7%
- 3–17.4%
Recent form
TOŠK Tešanj
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Igman Konjic · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bratstvo Gračanica · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Stupčanica Olovo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Jedinstvo Bihać · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Travnik · 1-2 (L)
Tomislav
- 2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Igman Konjic · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Bratstvo Gračanica · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stupčanica Olovo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Jedinstvo Bihać · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Travnik · 2-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1st League - FBiH table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Travnik | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 22 |
| 2 | Posušje | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 21 |
| 3 | Stupčanica Olovo | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 19 |
| 4 | Sloboda Tuzla | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 17 |
| 5 | GOŠK Gabela | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 16 |
| 6 | Igman Konjic | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 7 | TOŠK Tešanj | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 8 | Jedinstvo Bihać | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12 |
| 9 | Bratstvo Gračanica | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Budućnost Banovići | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 9 |
| 11 | Zvijezda Gradačac | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 8 |
| 12 | Tomislav | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -12 | 8 |
| 13 | Radnik Hadžići | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 7 |
| 14 | Rudar Kakanj | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
| 15 | Čapljina | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 7 |
| 16 | Vitez | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is TOŠK Tešanj win, at 63.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.