Tottenham Hotspur W vs Aston Villa W Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.43 expected goals for Tottenham Hotspur W and 0.93 for Aston Villa W, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Tottenham Hotspur W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Tottenham Hotspur W win

70.4% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.43 – 0.93

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Tottenham Hotspur W home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Aston Villa W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tottenham Hotspur W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 70% / 17% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.43 goals for Tottenham Hotspur W and 0.93 for Aston Villa W, a combined 3.35 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Tottenham Hotspur W win70%

Draw17%

Aston Villa W win13%

Double chance 1X

88%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

30%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals65%

Over 3.5 goals43%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

2–010.3%
2–19.5%
1–08.5%
3–08.3%
1–17.9%

Recent form

Tottenham Hotspur W

2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs London City Lionesses W · 1-6 (L)
2026-09-30T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Brighton W · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Aston Villa W · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs West Ham W · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Crystal Palace W · 7-0 (W)

Aston Villa W

2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Crystal Palace W · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-30T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Newcastle United W · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tottenham Hotspur W · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Nottingham Forest W · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Brighton W · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

FA WSL table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City W	6	6	0	0	11	18
2	Chelsea W	6	5	1	0	15	16
3	London City Lionesses W	6	5	0	1	11	15
4	Tottenham Hotspur W	6	3	1	2	4	10
5	Manchester United W	6	3	1	2	-2	10
6	Everton W	6	3	0	3	-1	9
7	Liverpool W	6	2	1	3	2	7
8	Arsenal W	6	1	3	2	-2	6
9	West Ham W	6	2	0	4	-5	6
10	Aston Villa W	6	1	3	2	-6	6
11	Crystal Palace W	6	1	3	2	-7	6
12	Brighton W	6	1	2	3	0	5
13	Birmingham City W	6	0	3	3	-5	3
14	Charlton Athletic W	6	0	0	6	-15	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Tottenham Hotspur W win, at 70.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.

A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.