Brisbane Road · Referee M. Burgin · Analysis updated 20:57 UTC
Tottenham Hotspur W vs Manchester United W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Tottenham Hotspur W and 2.00 for Manchester United W, a combined total of 3.33. That distribution gives Manchester United W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Manchester United W win
53.1% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 2.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tottenham Hotspur W home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Manchester United W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.5%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–17.2%
- 0–27.2%
- 1–36.4%
Recent form
Tottenham Hotspur W
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs London City Lionesses W · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-09-30T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Brighton W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Aston Villa W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs West Ham W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Crystal Palace W · 7-0 (W)
Manchester United W
- 2026-10-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Liverpool W · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Charlton Athletic W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Liverpool W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Durham W · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs West Ham W · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-26T11:00:00.000Z · Tottenham Hotspur W 0-0 Manchester United W (FA WSL)
- 2025-12-21T13:00:00.000Z · Tottenham Hotspur W 1-2 Manchester United W (WSL Cup)
- 2025-12-14T14:30:00.000Z · Tottenham Hotspur W 3-3 Manchester United W (FA WSL)
- 2025-02-02T18:45:00.000Z · Tottenham Hotspur W 0-1 Manchester United W (FA WSL)
- 2024-10-13T11:30:00.000Z · Tottenham Hotspur W 0-3 Manchester United W (FA WSL)
- 2024-05-12T13:30:00.000Z · Tottenham Hotspur W 0-4 Manchester United W (FA Women's Cup)
- 2024-04-21T11:00:00.000Z · Tottenham Hotspur W 2-2 Manchester United W (FA WSL)
- 2023-12-10T18:45:00.000Z · Tottenham Hotspur W 0-4 Manchester United W (FA WSL)
- 2023-05-07T11:30:00.000Z · Tottenham Hotspur W 0-3 Manchester United W (FA WSL)
- 2023-02-12T12:00:00.000Z · Tottenham Hotspur W 1-2 Manchester United W (FA WSL)
FA WSL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chelsea W | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 19 |
| 2 | Manchester City W | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 19 |
| 3 | London City Lionesses W | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 16 |
| 4 | Manchester United W | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 11 |
| 5 | Tottenham Hotspur W | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Arsenal W | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | Everton W | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 8 | Aston Villa W | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -5 | 9 |
| 9 | Brighton W | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 |
| 10 | Liverpool W | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 |
| 11 | Birmingham City W | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | West Ham W | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 6 |
| 13 | Crystal Palace W | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -9 | 6 |
| 14 | Charlton Athletic W | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -16 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Manchester United W win, at 53.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.