Tottenham Hotspur Stadium · Analysis updated 13:47 UTC
Tottenham vs 1899 Hoffenheim Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Tottenham and 1.83 for 1899 Hoffenheim, a combined total of 3.30. That distribution gives 1899 Hoffenheim the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
1899 Hoffenheim win
46.0% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tottenham home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
1899 Hoffenheim away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates 1899 Hoffenheim to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 31% / 23% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Tottenham and 1.83 for 1899 Hoffenheim, a combined 3.30 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.9%
- 1–29.1%
- 2–17.3%
- 0–16.7%
- 2–26.7%
Recent form
Tottenham
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Manchester United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Aston Villa · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Liverpool · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Everton · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Nottingham Forest · 0-0 (D)
1899 Hoffenheim
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Hamburger SV · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · A vs SC Paderborn 07 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-17T16:45:00.000Z · A vs OFI · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs VfB Stuttgart · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Dortmund · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-16T11:00:00.000Z · Tottenham 2-2 1899 Hoffenheim (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · Tottenham 3-0 1899 Hoffenheim (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-01-23T17:45:00.000Z · Tottenham 3-2 1899 Hoffenheim (UEFA Europa League)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is 1899 Hoffenheim win, at 46.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.