Tottenham Hotspur Stadium · Referee Samuel Barrott, England · Analysis updated 21:47 UTC
Tottenham vs Aston Villa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.42 expected goals for Tottenham and 0.98 for Aston Villa, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Tottenham the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tottenham win
47.2% probability
Expected goals
1.42 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tottenham home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Aston Villa away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.9%
- 1–112.6%
- 2–09.1%
- 0–09.1%
- 2–19.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.15 (model 52.6% vs market 43.0%, edge +9.6 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.15 | 43.0% | 52.6% | 1.90 | +9.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.29 | 73.3% | 74.0% | 1.35 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Home | 2.00 | 46.7% | 47.2% | 2.12 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.7% | 73.2% | 1.37 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 26.7% | 26.8% | 3.73 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 3.50 | 26.7% | 26.0% | 3.85 | -0.7 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.75 | 54.0% | 52.8% | 1.89 | -1.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.62 | 57.0% | 47.4% | 2.11 | -9.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Tottenham
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Manchester United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Aston Villa · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Liverpool · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Everton · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Nottingham Forest · 0-0 (D)
Aston Villa
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Brentford · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-02T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Sevilla · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Tottenham · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Coventry · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Nottingham Forest · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-03T18:00:00.000Z · Tottenham 2-1 Aston Villa (Premier League)
- 2026-01-10T17:45:00.000Z · Tottenham 1-2 Aston Villa (FA Cup)
- 2025-10-19T13:00:00.000Z · Tottenham 1-2 Aston Villa (Premier League)
- 2025-05-16T18:30:00.000Z · Tottenham 0-2 Aston Villa (Premier League)
- 2025-02-09T17:35:00.000Z · Tottenham 1-2 Aston Villa (FA Cup)
- 2024-11-03T14:00:00.000Z · Tottenham 4-1 Aston Villa (Premier League)
- 2024-03-10T13:00:00.000Z · Tottenham 4-0 Aston Villa (Premier League)
- 2023-11-26T14:00:00.000Z · Tottenham 1-2 Aston Villa (Premier League)
- 2023-05-13T14:00:00.000Z · Tottenham 1-2 Aston Villa (Premier League)
- 2023-01-01T14:00:00.000Z · Tottenham 0-2 Aston Villa (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Brighton | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 13 |
| 4 | Brentford | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Everton | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Manchester United | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Coventry | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 19 | Tottenham | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 20 | Fulham | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tottenham win, at 47.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.