Tottenham Hotspur Stadium · Analysis updated 14:21 UTC
Tottenham vs Manchester United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Tottenham and 1.48 for Manchester United, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Manchester United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Manchester United win
45.8% probability
Expected goals
1.10 – 1.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tottenham home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Manchester United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 28% / 26% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.10 goals for Tottenham and 1.48 for Manchester United, a combined 2.58 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 0–111.2%
- 1–29.1%
- 1–08.4%
- 0–28.3%
Recent form
Tottenham
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Manchester United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Aston Villa · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Liverpool · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Everton · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Nottingham Forest · 0-0 (D)
Manchester United
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Tottenham · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Fulham · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Brighton · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Manchester City · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sabah FA · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-07T12:30:00.000Z · Tottenham 0-2 Manchester United (Premier League)
- 2025-11-08T12:30:00.000Z · Tottenham 2-2 Manchester United (Premier League)
- 2025-05-21T19:00:00.000Z · Tottenham 1-0 Manchester United (UEFA Europa League)
- 2025-02-16T16:30:00.000Z · Tottenham 1-0 Manchester United (Premier League)
- 2024-12-19T20:00:00.000Z · Tottenham 4-3 Manchester United (League Cup)
- 2024-09-29T15:30:00.000Z · Tottenham 3-0 Manchester United (Premier League)
- 2024-01-14T16:30:00.000Z · Tottenham 2-2 Manchester United (Premier League)
- 2023-08-19T16:30:00.000Z · Tottenham 2-0 Manchester United (Premier League)
- 2023-04-27T19:15:00.000Z · Tottenham 2-2 Manchester United (Premier League)
- 2022-10-19T19:15:00.000Z · Tottenham 0-2 Manchester United (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Brighton | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 13 |
| 4 | Brentford | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Everton | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Manchester United | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Coventry | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 19 | Tottenham | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 20 | Fulham | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Manchester United win, at 45.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.