· Analysis updated 13:40 UTC
Toulouse vs Hamburger SV Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.63 for Hamburger SV, a combined total of 3.38. That distribution gives Toulouse the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.0% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 1.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Toulouse home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hamburger SV away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Toulouse to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 23% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Toulouse and 1.63 for Hamburger SV, a combined 3.38 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.7%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–27.9%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–06.0%
Recent form
Toulouse
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Monaco · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs PAU · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Le Havre · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Lorient · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-03T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lille · 0-1 (L)
Hamburger SV
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs 1899 Hoffenheim · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Copenhagen · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Köln · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:30:00.000Z · A vs RB Leipzig · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:30:00.000Z · H vs FSV Mainz 05 · 0-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.