Stadium Municipal · Referee Hakim Ben el Salem Hadj, France · Analysis updated 22:45 UTC
Toulouse vs Le Havre Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Toulouse and 0.85 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Toulouse the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Toulouse win
52.5% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Toulouse home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Le Havre away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.3%
- 1–112.2%
- 2–010.7%
- 0–09.5%
- 2–19.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.95 (model 55.5% vs market 48.4%, edge +7.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.95 | 48.4% | 55.5% | 1.80 | +7.1 |
| Match result | Away | 4.40 | 21.0% | 21.3% | 4.69 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.29 | 73.5% | 73.8% | 1.36 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.00 | 47.4% | 47.5% | 2.11 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 26.3% | 26.2% | 3.82 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.75 | 52.7% | 52.5% | 1.90 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.20 | 79.0% | 78.7% | 1.27 | -0.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.83 | 51.6% | 44.5% | 2.25 | -7.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Toulouse
- 2026-10-16T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Le Mans · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Monaco · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs PAU · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Le Havre · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Lorient · 2-2 (D)
Le Havre
- 2026-10-18T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Auxerre · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Lille · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Boulogne · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Toulouse · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Angers · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-15T14:00:00.000Z · Toulouse 1-2 Le Havre (Ligue 1)
- 2025-11-02T16:15:00.000Z · Toulouse 0-0 Le Havre (Ligue 1)
- 2025-02-23T16:15:00.000Z · Toulouse 4-1 Le Havre (Ligue 1)
- 2024-09-15T15:00:00.000Z · Toulouse 2-0 Le Havre (Ligue 1)
- 2024-03-10T14:00:00.000Z · Toulouse 0-1 Le Havre (Ligue 1)
- 2023-11-05T14:00:00.000Z · Toulouse 1-2 Le Havre (Ligue 1)
- 2022-02-21T19:45:00.000Z · Toulouse 4-0 Le Havre (Ligue 2)
- 2021-09-13T18:45:00.000Z · Toulouse 1-1 Le Havre (Ligue 2)
- 2021-05-04T17:00:00.000Z · Toulouse 1-0 Le Havre (Ligue 2)
- 2020-12-19T14:00:00.000Z · Toulouse 4-3 Le Havre (Ligue 2)
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rennes | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 16 |
| 2 | Lille | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Monaco | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | Lyon | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 5 | Paris Saint Germain | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 6 | Paris FC | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 7 | Lens | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 |
| 8 | Marseille | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 12 |
| 9 | Lorient | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 10 | Nice | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | Toulouse | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 12 | Auxerre | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 13 | Stade Brestois 29 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 14 | Angers | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Le Mans | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 | Strasbourg | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 7 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 5 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Toulouse win, at 52.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.