Toulouse vs Lens Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.60 for Lens, a combined total of 2.94. That distribution gives Lens the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 57% of the time.

Model pick

Lens or Draw

67.8% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.34 – 1.60

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Toulouse win32%

Draw24%

Lens win44%

Double chance 1X

56%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

68%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals57%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–111.3%
1–29.1%
0–18.4%
2–17.6%
1–07.1%

Why the model likes this

Toulouse home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lens to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 32% / 24% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.34 goals for Toulouse and 1.60 for Lens, a combined 2.94 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 57% and both teams to score at 59%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Recent form

Toulouse

2026-08-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Hamburger SV · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-31T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Sociedad · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Rodez · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Nantes · 0-0 (D)
2026-05-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lyon · 2-1 (W)

Lens

2026-08-08T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Sunderland · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Villarreal · 3-1 (W)
2026-07-28T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Famalicao · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-28T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Crystal Palace · 3-0 (W)
2026-07-25T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Charleroi · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ligue 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Auxerre	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Angers	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Stade Brestois 29	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Lorient	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Le Havre	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Le Mans	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Lille	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Nice	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Lyon	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Marseille	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Paris FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Paris Saint Germain	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Lens	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Rennes	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Strasbourg	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Toulouse	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Estac Troyes	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.