Toulouse vs Lille Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Toulouse and 2.00 for Lille, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Lille the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Lille win

60.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.00 – 2.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Toulouse home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lille away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Toulouse win18%

Draw21%

Lille win61%

Double chance 1X

40%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

82%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

0–110.0%
0–210.0%
1–110.0%
1–210.0%
0–36.6%

Recent form

Toulouse

2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Monaco · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs PAU · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Le Havre · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Lorient · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-03T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lille · 0-1 (L)

Lille

2026-10-10T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Le Havre · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Zulte Waregem · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Nice · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Estac Troyes · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Betis · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-09-03T18:45:00.000Z · Toulouse 0-1 Lille (Ligue 1)
2026-04-12T15:15:00.000Z · Toulouse 0-4 Lille (Ligue 1)
2025-09-14T13:00:00.000Z · Toulouse 1-2 Lille (Ligue 1)
2025-04-12T17:00:00.000Z · Toulouse 1-2 Lille (Ligue 1)
2024-10-05T17:00:00.000Z · Toulouse 1-2 Lille (Ligue 1)
2024-02-25T14:00:00.000Z · Toulouse 3-1 Lille (Ligue 1)
2023-11-12T14:00:00.000Z · Toulouse 1-1 Lille (Ligue 1)
2023-03-18T16:00:00.000Z · Toulouse 0-2 Lille (Ligue 1)
2022-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · Toulouse 1-2 Lille (Ligue 1)
2020-02-22T19:00:00.000Z · Toulouse 0-3 Lille (Ligue 1)

Ligue 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Monaco	6	4	2	0	5	14
2	Lille	6	4	1	1	5	13
3	Rennes	6	4	1	1	2	13
4	Lyon	6	3	2	1	7	11
5	Paris FC	6	3	2	1	4	11
6	Paris Saint Germain	6	3	2	1	3	11
7	Stade Brestois 29	6	2	2	2	3	8
8	Lorient	6	2	2	2	0	8
9	Nice	6	2	2	2	-2	8
10	Lens	6	2	1	3	1	7
11	Strasbourg	6	2	1	3	-1	7
12	Angers	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Marseille	6	2	0	4	1	6
14	Le Mans	6	1	3	2	-2	6
15	Toulouse	6	1	3	2	-2	6
16	Auxerre	6	2	0	4	-8	6
17	Estac Troyes	6	1	1	4	-9	4
18	Le Havre	6	0	2	4	-4	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Lille win, at 60.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.