Toulouse vs Monaco Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.56 for Monaco, a combined total of 3.33. That distribution gives Toulouse the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws roughly 57% of the time.

Model pick

Toulouse or Draw

65.6% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.76 – 1.56

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Toulouse win43%

Draw23%

Monaco win34%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

57%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals65%

Over 3.5 goals43%

Both teams to score66%

Correct score

1–19.9%
2–18.7%
1–27.7%
2–26.8%
1–06.3%

Why the model likes this

Toulouse home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Toulouse to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 23% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for Toulouse and 1.56 for Monaco, a combined 3.33 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 65% and both teams to score at 66%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

Recent form

Toulouse

2026-08-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Hamburger SV · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-31T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Sociedad · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Rodez · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Nantes · 0-0 (D)
2026-05-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lyon · 2-1 (W)

Monaco

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ligue 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Paris Saint Germain	34	24	4	6	45	76
2	Lens	34	22	4	8	31	70
3	Lille	34	18	7	9	15	61
4	Lyon	34	18	6	10	13	60
5	Marseille	34	18	5	11	18	59
6	Rennes	34	17	8	9	9	59
7	Monaco	34	16	6	12	6	54
8	Strasbourg	34	15	8	11	11	53
9	Lorient	34	11	12	11	-3	45
10	Toulouse	33	12	8	13	1	44
11	Paris FC	34	11	11	12	-3	44
12	Stade Brestois 29	34	10	9	15	-12	39
13	Angers	34	9	9	16	-19	36
14	Le Havre	34	7	14	13	-12	35
15	Auxerre	34	8	10	16	-10	34
16	Nice	34	7	11	16	-23	32
17	Nantes	33	5	8	20	-23	23
18	Metz	34	3	8	23	-44	17

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.