Stadium Municipal · Analysis updated 21:46 UTC
Toulouse vs Monaco Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.27 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.65 for Monaco, a combined total of 2.92. That distribution gives Monaco the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Monaco win
46.3% probability
Expected goals
1.27 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Toulouse home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Monaco away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Monaco to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 30% / 24% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.27 goals for Toulouse and 1.65 for Monaco, a combined 2.92 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.3%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–18.9%
- 0–27.3%
- 2–17.2%
Recent form
Toulouse
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Monaco · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs PAU · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Le Havre · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Lorient · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-03T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lille · 0-1 (L)
Monaco
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Toulouse · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Pisa · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lens · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Strasbourg · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T19:05:00.000Z · A vs Paris Saint Germain · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 2 | Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Rennes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 5 | Paris FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Paris Saint Germain | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Stade Brestois 29 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 8 | Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Lens | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Strasbourg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Angers | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 14 | Le Mans | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Monaco win, at 46.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.