· Analysis updated 08:43 UTC
Township Rollers vs BDF XI Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Township Rollers and 0.75 for BDF XI, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Township Rollers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Township Rollers win
53.8% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 0.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Township Rollers home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
BDF XI away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Township Rollers to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 27% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Township Rollers and 0.75 for BDF XI, a combined 2.20 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.1%
- 1–112.0%
- 2–011.6%
- 0–011.1%
- 2–18.7%
Recent form
Township Rollers
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Matebele · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Orapa United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Centre Chiefs · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Extension Gunners · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Morupule Wanderers · 1-1 (D)
BDF XI
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Tonota · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Prisons XI · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Nico United · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Gaborone United · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Centre Chiefs · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gaborone United | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 15 |
| 2 | Tonota | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Sua Flamingoes | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 4 | Centre Chiefs | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Orapa United | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 6 | Extension Gunners | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | TAFIC | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 8 | Police XI | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Galaxy | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Nico United | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 11 | Township Rollers | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 12 | Enesia | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 13 | Matebele | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | BDF XI | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Prisons XI | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Morupule Wanderers | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Township Rollers win, at 53.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.