· Analysis updated 21:41 UTC
TP Mazembe vs Céleste Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for TP Mazembe and 0.87 for Céleste, a combined total of 2.73. That distribution gives TP Mazembe the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
TP Mazembe win
60.5% probability
Expected goals
1.86 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
TP Mazembe home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Céleste away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates TP Mazembe to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 22% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.86 goals for TP Mazembe and 0.87 for Céleste, a combined 2.73 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.1%
- 2–011.2%
- 1–110.6%
- 2–19.8%
- 3–07.0%
Recent form
TP Mazembe
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Africain · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Medeama · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Medeama · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Céleste · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-06-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Don Bosco · 3-0 (W)
Céleste
- 2026-10-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Mk de Kinshasa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs TP Mazembe · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Saint Eloi Lupopo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-14T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Maniema Union · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-06-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Simba · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Simba | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 1 | Anges Verts | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Tanganyika | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Étoile du Congo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Don Bosco | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | JSK | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Malole | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | FC Mk de Kinshasa | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 5 | Saint Eloi Lupopo | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 5 | Céleste | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Sanga Balende | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Dauphins Noirs | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | AS New Soger | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Rangers | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | CS Manika | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Etoile de Kivu | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | TP Mazembe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | New Jack | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 10 | Lubumbashi Sport | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Vita Club | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Butras | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Maniema Union | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Blessing | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 12 | FC Renaissance | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Saint-Luc | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 13 | Novakin | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is TP Mazembe win, at 60.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.