TPV vs Rops Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.42 expected goals for TPV and 2.00 for Rops, a combined total of 3.42. That distribution gives Rops the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Rops win

50.8% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.42 – 2.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

TPV home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rops to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 28% / 22% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.42 goals for TPV and 2.00 for Rops, a combined 3.42 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 66% and both teams to score at 66%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.

Match result (1X2)

TPV win28%

Draw22%

Rops win51%

Double chance 1X

49%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

73%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals66%

Over 3.5 goals45%

Both teams to score66%

Correct score

1–19.3%
1–29.3%
2–16.6%
2–26.6%
0–16.5%

Recent form

TPV

2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs FC jazz · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter Turku II · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs KuPS Akatemia · 4-2 (W)
2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · H vs PKKU · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-22T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter Turku II · 1-0 (W)

Rops

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ykkönen table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tampere United	27	16	6	5	33	54
2	Rops	27	13	9	5	20	48
3	SalPa	27	14	6	7	12	48
4	VJS	27	12	10	5	14	46
5	OLS	27	11	8	8	11	41
6	FC jazz	27	11	7	9	1	40
7	PKKU	27	10	8	9	0	38
8	JJK	27	9	7	11	1	34
9	Inter Turku II	27	8	6	13	-9	30
10	TPV	27	8	6	13	-10	30
11	KPV-j	27	5	4	18	-52	19
12	KuPS Akatemia	27	3	7	17	-21	16

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Rops win, at 50.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.