TPV vs SalPa Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.66 expected goals for TPV and 2.00 for SalPa, a combined total of 3.66. That distribution gives SalPa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

SalPa win

45.9% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.66 – 2.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

TPV home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
SalPa away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SalPa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 33% / 22% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.66 goals for TPV and 2.00 for SalPa, a combined 3.66 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

TPV win33%

Draw22%

SalPa win46%

Double chance 1X

54%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

67%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals71%

Over 3.5 goals50%

Both teams to score70%

Correct score

1–18.6%
1–28.5%
2–17.1%
2–27.1%
1–35.7%

Recent form

TPV

2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs VJS · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs KPV-j · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs FC jazz · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter Turku II · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs KuPS Akatemia · 4-2 (W)

SalPa

2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs OLS · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs PKKU · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-26T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Rops · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Tampere United · 6-4 (W)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs JJK · 4-3 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ykkönen table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tampere United	27	16	6	5	33	54
2	Rops	27	13	9	5	20	48
3	SalPa	27	14	6	7	12	48
4	VJS	27	12	10	5	14	46
5	OLS	27	11	8	8	11	41
6	FC jazz	27	11	7	9	1	40
7	PKKU	27	10	8	9	0	38
8	JJK	27	9	7	11	1	34
9	Inter Turku II	27	8	6	13	-9	30
10	TPV	27	8	6	13	-10	30
11	KPV-j	27	5	4	18	-52	19
12	KuPS Akatemia	27	3	7	17	-21	16

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is SalPa win, at 45.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.