Træff vs jerv Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Træff and 1.78 for jerv, a combined total of 3.22. That distribution gives jerv the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

jerv win

45.4% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.45 – 1.78

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Træff home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
jerv away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates jerv to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 32% / 23% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Træff and 1.78 for jerv, a combined 3.22 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Træff win32%

Draw23%

jerv win45%

Double chance 1X

55%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

68%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals40%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

1–110.2%
1–29.1%
2–17.4%
0–17.1%
2–26.6%

Recent form

Træff

2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Sandviken · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Mjondalen · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Kvik Halden · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bjarg · 1-6 (L)
2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs hodd · 0-3 (L)

jerv

2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sotra · 4-3 (W)
2026-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Arendal · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Lysekloster · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Notodden · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kvik Halden · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-02T12:00:00.000Z · Træff 3-2 jerv (2. Division - Group 1)
2026-04-26T11:00:00.000Z · Træff 1-1 jerv (2. Division - Group 1)
2025-08-17T12:00:00.000Z · Træff 0-1 jerv (2. Division - Group 1)
2025-07-06T11:00:00.000Z · Træff 0-2 jerv (2. Division - Group 1)

2. Division - Group 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	jerv	24	17	5	2	27	56
2	Bjarg	24	16	2	6	25	50
3	Mjondalen	24	16	2	6	18	50
4	Brattvåg	24	15	3	6	18	48
5	Sotra	24	13	3	8	24	42
6	Notodden	24	10	5	9	7	35
7	Kvik Halden	24	10	4	10	2	34
8	Træff	24	9	7	8	-7	34
9	Arendal	24	8	6	10	-5	30
10	Pors Grenland	24	8	5	11	-3	29
11	Sandviken	24	7	4	13	-15	25
12	Lysekloster	24	4	7	13	-20	19
13	Vidar	24	3	4	17	-40	13
14	Eik-Tønsberg	24	3	1	20	-31	10

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is jerv win, at 45.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.

A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.