Reknesbanen · Analysis updated 13:02 UTC
Træff vs Notodden Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Træff and 1.35 for Notodden, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Notodden the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.8% probability
Expected goals
1.28 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Træff home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Notodden away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Notodden to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 35% / 26% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for Træff and 1.35 for Notodden, a combined 2.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 0–19.8%
- 1–09.2%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–17.9%
Recent form
Træff
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lysekloster · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Sandviken · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Mjondalen · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Kvik Halden · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bjarg · 1-6 (L)
Notodden
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Eik-Tønsberg · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs jerv · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Arendal · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs ODD Ballklubb · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Træff · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. Division - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | jerv | 24 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 27 | 56 |
| 2 | Brattvåg | 25 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 51 |
| 3 | Bjarg | 24 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 50 |
| 4 | Mjondalen | 25 | 16 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 50 |
| 5 | Sotra | 25 | 14 | 3 | 8 | 27 | 45 |
| 6 | Notodden | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 35 |
| 7 | Kvik Halden | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | -1 | 34 |
| 8 | Træff | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | -7 | 34 |
| 9 | Pors Grenland | 25 | 8 | 6 | 11 | -3 | 30 |
| 10 | Arendal | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | -5 | 30 |
| 11 | Sandviken | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | -15 | 26 |
| 12 | Lysekloster | 25 | 5 | 7 | 13 | -18 | 22 |
| 13 | Eik-Tønsberg | 25 | 4 | 1 | 20 | -28 | 13 |
| 14 | Vidar | 25 | 3 | 4 | 18 | -42 | 13 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.