Sportzentrum Anif · Referee P. Nisandzic · Analysis updated 15:46 UTC
Trabzonspor vs Al Sadd Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 1.68 for Al Sadd, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Al Sadd the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
61.6% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Trabzonspor home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al Sadd away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Sadd to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 38% / 23% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for Trabzonspor and 1.68 for Al Sadd, a combined 3.35 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.8%
- 1–28.3%
- 2–18.2%
- 2–26.9%
- 0–15.9%
Recent form
Trabzonspor
- 2026-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Drogheda United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Galatasaray · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Konyaspor · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-31T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Amed · 1-2 (L)
Al Sadd
- 2026-09-14T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Esteghlal FC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-10T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Al-Sailiya · 6-3 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Al-Gharafa · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Gharafa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-28T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Qatar SC · 6-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-30T16:00:00.000Z · Trabzonspor 0-1 Al Sadd (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 61.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.