Papara Park · Referee Batuhan Kolak, Türkiye · Analysis updated 10:22 UTC
Trabzonspor vs Galatasaray Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 1.90 for Galatasaray, a combined total of 3.78. That distribution gives Galatasaray the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
61.2% probability
Expected goals
1.88 – 1.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Trabzonspor home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Galatasaray away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.2%
- 1–27.8%
- 2–17.7%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–34.9%
Recent form
Trabzonspor
- 2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Heart Of Midlothian · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Beşiktaş · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · A vs KuPS · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Samsunspor · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Drogheda United · 0-1 (L)
Galatasaray
- 2026-10-21T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Lille · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Barcelona · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Kasımpaşa · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Pendikspor · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · Trabzonspor 4-0 Galatasaray (Süper Lig)
- 2026-04-04T17:00:00.000Z · Trabzonspor 2-1 Galatasaray (Süper Lig)
- 2026-01-05T17:30:00.000Z · Trabzonspor 1-4 Galatasaray (Super Cup)
- 2025-11-01T17:00:00.000Z · Trabzonspor 0-0 Galatasaray (Süper Lig)
- 2025-05-14T17:45:00.000Z · Trabzonspor 0-3 Galatasaray (Türkiye Kupası)
- 2025-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · Trabzonspor 0-2 Galatasaray (Süper Lig)
- 2024-12-16T18:00:00.000Z · Trabzonspor 3-4 Galatasaray (Süper Lig)
- 2024-01-21T16:00:00.000Z · Trabzonspor 1-5 Galatasaray (Süper Lig)
- 2023-08-19T18:45:00.000Z · Trabzonspor 0-2 Galatasaray (Süper Lig)
- 2023-02-05T16:00:00.000Z · Trabzonspor 1-2 Galatasaray (Süper Lig)
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amed | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 20 |
| 2 | Galatasaray | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 19 |
| 3 | Fenerbahçe | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 16 |
| 4 | Trabzonspor | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 16 |
| 5 | Kasımpaşa | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Beşiktaş | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 15 |
| 7 | Kocaelispor | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 8 | Erzurumspor FK | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 14 |
| 9 | Çorum FK | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 13 |
| 10 | Alanyaspor | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 11 | Başakşehir | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 12 | Rizespor | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Göztepe | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 14 | Gaziantep FK | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 8 |
| 16 | Konyaspor | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Samsunspor | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -13 | 4 |
| 18 | Eyüpspor | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -21 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 61.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.