Papara Park · Analysis updated 08:13 UTC
Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.15 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 1.00 for Gaziantep FK, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives Trabzonspor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Trabzonspor win
63.6% probability
Expected goals
2.15 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Trabzonspor home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gaziantep FK away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Trabzonspor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 20% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.15 goals for Trabzonspor and 1.00 for Gaziantep FK, a combined 3.15 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–09.9%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.2%
- 1–19.2%
- 3–07.1%
Recent form
Trabzonspor
- 2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Heart Of Midlothian · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Beşiktaş · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · A vs KuPS · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Samsunspor · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Drogheda United · 0-1 (L)
Gaziantep FK
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kocaelispor · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Fenerbahçe · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Göztepe · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-29T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Rizespor · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Eyüpspor · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amed | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 20 |
| 2 | Galatasaray | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 19 |
| 3 | Fenerbahçe | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 16 |
| 4 | Trabzonspor | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 16 |
| 5 | Kasımpaşa | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Beşiktaş | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 15 |
| 7 | Kocaelispor | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 8 | Erzurumspor FK | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 14 |
| 9 | Çorum FK | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 13 |
| 10 | Alanyaspor | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 11 | Başakşehir | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 12 | Rizespor | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Göztepe | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 14 | Gaziantep FK | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 8 |
| 16 | Konyaspor | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Samsunspor | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -13 | 4 |
| 18 | Eyüpspor | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -21 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Trabzonspor win, at 63.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.