Trabzonspor vs Heart Of Midlothian Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.93 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 2.25 for Heart Of Midlothian, a combined total of 5.18. That distribution gives Trabzonspor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 89% for over 2.5 goals and 84% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Trabzonspor win

52.6% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.93 – 2.25

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Trabzonspor home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Heart Of Midlothian away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Trabzonspor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 17% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.93 goals for Trabzonspor and 2.25 for Heart Of Midlothian, a combined 5.18 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Trabzonspor win53%

Draw17%

Heart Of Midlothian win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

47%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals96%

Over 2.5 goals89%

Over 3.5 goals76%

Both teams to score84%

Correct score

2–26.1%
3–26.0%
2–15.4%
3–15.3%
2–34.6%

Recent form

Trabzonspor

2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Heart Of Midlothian · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Beşiktaş · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · A vs KuPS · 4-2 (W)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Samsunspor · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Drogheda United · 0-1 (L)

Heart Of Midlothian

2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Trabzonspor · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Celtic · 1-7 (L)
2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Nordsjaelland · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs ST Mirren · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-19T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Kilmarnock · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

UEFA Europa Conference League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Panathinaikos	2	2	0	0	5	6
2	FC Lugano	2	2	0	0	4	6
3	Brann	2	2	0	0	4	6
4	Trabzonspor	2	2	0	0	4	6
5	Twente	2	2	0	0	4	6
6	Monaco	2	2	0	0	4	6
7	St. Truiden	2	2	0	0	3	6
8	HNK Hajduk Split	2	2	0	0	2	6
9	Brighton	2	1	1	0	4	4
10	FC Copenhagen	2	1	1	0	3	4
11	Universitatea Craiova	2	1	1	0	2	4
12	Mjallby AIF	2	1	1	0	2	4
13	Ajax	2	1	0	1	1	3
14	Borac Banja Luka	2	1	0	1	1	3
15	Atalanta	2	1	0	1	0	3
16	SC Braga	2	1	0	1	-1	3
17	Gent	2	1	0	1	-1	3
18	SC Freiburg	2	1	0	1	-2	3
19	FC Nordsjaelland	2	0	2	0	0	2
20	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	2	0	2	0	0	2
21	Riga	2	0	2	0	0	2
22	FK Crvena Zvezda	2	0	1	1	-1	1
23	CSKA Sofia	2	0	1	1	-1	1
24	FK Jablonec	2	0	1	1	-1	1
25	FC Midtjylland	2	0	1	1	-1	1
26	Aarhus	2	0	1	1	-1	1
27	Pafos	2	0	1	1	-2	1
28	Heart Of Midlothian	2	0	1	1	-2	1
29	FC Iberia 1999	2	0	1	1	-2	1
30	Getafe	2	0	1	1	-3	1
31	Kairat Almaty	2	0	1	1	-4	1
32	FC Thun	2	0	0	2	-2	0
33	Lincoln Red Imps FC	2	0	0	2	-4	0
34	KuPS	2	0	0	2	-4	0
35	Inter Club d'Escaldes	2	0	0	2	-4	0
36	Kauno Žalgiris	2	0	0	2	-7	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Trabzonspor win, at 52.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 84% and over 2.5 goals at 89%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.