Tractor Sazi vs Kheybar Khorramabad Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.46 expected goals for Tractor Sazi and 0.55 for Kheybar Khorramabad, a combined total of 2.01. That distribution gives Tractor Sazi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Tractor Sazi win

59.5% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.46 – 0.55

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Tractor Sazi home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Kheybar Khorramabad away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tractor Sazi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 27% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.46 goals for Tractor Sazi and 0.55 for Kheybar Khorramabad, a combined 2.01 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Tractor Sazi win60%

Draw27%

Kheybar Khorramabad win14%

Double chance 1X

86%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

40%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals60%

Over 2.5 goals33%

Over 3.5 goals15%

Both teams to score33%

Correct score

1–019.5%
2–014.3%
0–013.4%
1–110.8%
2–17.9%

Recent form

Tractor Sazi

2026-10-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Shamal · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-08T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Esteghlal FC · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-10T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Esteghlal Khuzestan · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Gol Gohar · 1-0 (W)

Kheybar Khorramabad

2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Esteghlal Khuzestan · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-14T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Persepolis FC · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-09T13:15:00.000Z · A vs Chadormalu SC · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-07T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Nassaji Mazandaran · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-02T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Foolad FC · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Persian Gulf Pro League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Persepolis FC	10	6	2	2	13	20
2	Sepahan FC	10	6	2	2	11	20
3	Tractor Sazi	9	6	2	1	10	20
4	Esteghlal FC	10	5	5	0	9	20
5	Foolad FC	10	5	4	1	5	19
6	Aluminium Arak	10	3	5	2	3	14
7	Kheybar Khorramabad	10	3	5	2	2	14
8	Fajr Sepasi	10	3	5	2	-2	14
9	Gol Gohar	10	4	1	5	1	13
10	Chadormalu SC	10	3	4	3	-4	13
11	Nassaji Mazandaran	10	2	5	3	-2	11
12	Paykan	10	2	4	4	-3	10
13	Malavan	9	2	3	4	-4	9
14	Esteghlal Khuzestan	10	2	3	5	-7	9
15	ZOB Ahan	10	1	5	4	-4	8
16	Shams Azar Qazvin	10	1	4	5	-5	7
17	Sanat Naft	10	1	4	5	-10	7
18	Mes Shahr-e Babak	10	0	5	5	-13	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Tractor Sazi win, at 59.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.

A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.