Prenton Park · Analysis updated 13:30 UTC
Tranmere vs Rochdale Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Tranmere and 0.90 for Rochdale, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Tranmere the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tranmere win
45.8% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tranmere home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rochdale away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tranmere to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 28% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Tranmere and 0.90 for Rochdale, a combined 2.20 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.4%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–011.1%
- 0–110.0%
- 2–09.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.05 (model 56.8% vs market 45.8%, edge +11.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.05 | 45.8% | 56.8% | 1.76 | +11.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.75 | 53.4% | 54.2% | 1.85 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Away | 3.60 | 25.5% | 25.8% | 3.88 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Home | 2.00 | 45.9% | 45.8% | 2.18 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.20 | 28.7% | 28.4% | 3.52 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 71.9% | 71.6% | 1.40 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.25 | 74.7% | 74.2% | 1.35 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.73 | 54.2% | 43.2% | 2.31 | -11.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Tranmere
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Exeter City · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gillingham · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Oldham · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-01T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Rotherham · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Newport County · 2-2 (D)
Rochdale
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tranmere · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Huddersfield · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Swindon Town · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Fleetwood Town · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Liverpool U21 · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 19 |
| 2 | Barnet | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 18 |
| 3 | Crewe | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | Gillingham | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 16 |
| 5 | York | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 6 | Walsall | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 15 |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 8 | Cheltenham | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 9 | Bristol Rovers | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 15 |
| 10 | Rochdale | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 | Grimsby | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 12 | Newport County | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 13 | Tranmere | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 14 | Exeter City | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 12 |
| 15 | Accrington ST | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 16 | Fleetwood Town | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 17 | Swindon Town | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 18 | Shrewsbury | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 11 |
| 19 | Colchester | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 20 | Rotherham | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 21 | Oldham | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 8 |
| 22 | Port Vale | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 23 | Northampton | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tranmere win, at 45.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.