Narva Kalev-Fama staadion · Referee K. Tohver · Analysis updated 15:43 UTC
Trans Narva vs Paide Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.81 expected goals for Trans Narva and 2.02 for Paide, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives Paide the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Paide win
65.6% probability
Expected goals
0.81 – 2.02
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Trans Narva home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Paide away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Paide to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 14% / 20% / 66% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.81 goals for Trans Narva and 2.02 for Paide, a combined 2.83 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
34%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
86%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–212.0%
- 0–111.9%
- 1–29.8%
- 1–19.7%
- 0–38.1%
Recent form
Trans Narva
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Vaprus · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Levadia Tallinn · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Kalju Nomme · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Flora Tallinn · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Kuressaare · 1-3 (L)
Paide
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Nõmme United · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vaprus · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Laagri · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tammeka · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T11:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Levadia Tallinn · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Meistriliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 32 | 25 | 6 | 1 | 65 | 81 |
| 2 | Flora Tallinn | 32 | 19 | 1 | 12 | 18 | 58 |
| 3 | Paide | 32 | 17 | 6 | 9 | 13 | 57 |
| 4 | Kalju Nomme | 32 | 15 | 6 | 11 | 21 | 51 |
| 5 | Tammeka | 32 | 15 | 2 | 15 | -9 | 47 |
| 6 | Laagri | 32 | 14 | 2 | 16 | -2 | 44 |
| 7 | Vaprus | 32 | 10 | 6 | 16 | -20 | 36 |
| 8 | Kuressaare | 32 | 10 | 5 | 17 | -17 | 35 |
| 9 | Nõmme United | 32 | 10 | 1 | 21 | -24 | 31 |
| 10 | Trans Narva | 32 | 5 | 5 | 22 | -45 | 20 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Paide win, at 65.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.