· Analysis updated 16:20 UTC
Transinvest 2 vs Jonava Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.27 expected goals for Transinvest 2 and 1.68 for Jonava, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Jonava the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Jonava win
47.0% probability
Expected goals
1.27 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Transinvest 2 home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Jonava away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Jonava to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 29% / 24% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.27 goals for Transinvest 2 and 1.68 for Jonava, a combined 2.95 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–18.8%
- 0–27.4%
- 2–17.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Goals — Under 3.5 at 1.44 (model 65.9% vs market 62.8%, edge +3.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5Value | 1.44 | 62.8% | 65.9% | 1.52 | +3.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 74.2% | 76.0% | 1.32 | +1.8 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.30 | 39.9% | 41.5% | 2.41 | +1.6 |
| Match result | Home | 3.25 | 27.5% | 29.0% | 3.45 | +1.5 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.12 | 42.7% | 43.5% | 2.30 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Away | 1.92 | 46.6% | 47.0% | 2.13 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.67 | 53.3% | 53.0% | 1.89 | -0.3 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.58 | 57.3% | 56.5% | 1.77 | -0.8 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.23 | 72.4% | 71.0% | 1.41 | -1.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.53 | 60.1% | 58.5% | 1.71 | -1.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.45 | 25.9% | 24.0% | 4.17 | -1.9 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.43 | 37.2% | 34.1% | 2.93 | -3.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Transinvest 2
- 2026-09-18T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Be1 NFA · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Hegelmann II · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Minija · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Jonava · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Žalgiris II · 3-4 (L)
Jonava
- 2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dainava · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Transinvest 2 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-21T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FA Šiauliai II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Kauno Žalgiris II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-07T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ekranas · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-25T15:00:00.000Z · Transinvest 2 0-4 Jonava (1 Lyga)
1 Lyga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minija | 26 | 22 | 1 | 3 | 54 | 67 |
| 2 | Babrungas | 27 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 35 | 67 |
| 3 | Be1 NFA | 26 | 17 | 3 | 6 | 20 | 54 |
| 4 | Žalgiris II | 27 | 14 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 46 |
| 5 | Tauras | 26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 44 |
| 6 | Dainava | 27 | 12 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 44 |
| 7 | Neptūną Klaipėda | 27 | 14 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 44 |
| 8 | BFA | 27 | 13 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 43 |
| 9 | Atmosfera | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 34 |
| 10 | Jonava | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | -4 | 30 |
| 11 | Garliava | 27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | -1 | 29 |
| 12 | Hegelmann II | 27 | 8 | 2 | 17 | -25 | 26 |
| 13 | Transinvest 2 | 27 | 7 | 4 | 16 | -27 | 25 |
| 14 | Kauno Žalgiris II | 27 | 7 | 2 | 18 | -22 | 23 |
| 15 | FA Šiauliai II | 27 | 4 | 6 | 17 | -30 | 18 |
| 16 | Ekranas | 27 | 4 | 3 | 20 | -35 | 15 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Jonava win, at 47.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.