FK TransINVEST stadium · Referee D. Svegzda · Analysis updated 10:09 UTC
TransINVEST Vilnius vs Šiauliai Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for TransINVEST Vilnius and 1.13 for Šiauliai, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives TransINVEST Vilnius the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
TransINVEST Vilnius win
49.6% probability
Expected goals
1.65 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
TransINVEST Vilnius home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 9 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates TransINVEST Vilnius to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 24% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.65 goals for TransINVEST Vilnius and 1.13 for Šiauliai, a combined 2.78 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 1–010.3%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–08.5%
- 0–17.0%
Recent form
TransINVEST Vilnius
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Banga · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Suduva Marijampole · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-24T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Šiauliai · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-16T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Kauno Žalgiris · 1-1 (D)
Šiauliai
- 2026-10-25T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Banga · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kauno Žalgiris · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hegelmann Litauen · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-03T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Kauno Žalgiris · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-24T15:45:00.000Z · TransINVEST Vilnius 3-0 Šiauliai (A Lyga)
- 2026-06-29T15:30:00.000Z · TransINVEST Vilnius 3-1 Šiauliai (A Lyga)
- 2026-04-26T13:30:00.000Z · TransINVEST Vilnius 4-0 Šiauliai (A Lyga)
- 2026-02-22T15:00:00.000Z · TransINVEST Vilnius 2-2 Šiauliai (A Lyga)
- 2024-09-21T12:00:00.000Z · TransINVEST Vilnius 2-0 Šiauliai (A Lyga)
- 2024-07-05T16:00:00.000Z · TransINVEST Vilnius 0-1 Šiauliai (A Lyga)
- 2024-05-18T13:00:00.000Z · TransINVEST Vilnius 1-3 Šiauliai (A Lyga)
- 2024-03-30T15:00:00.000Z · TransINVEST Vilnius 1-0 Šiauliai (A Lyga)
- 2023-10-01T14:30:00.000Z · TransINVEST Vilnius 2-1 Šiauliai (Cup)
A Lyga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kauno Žalgiris | 29 | 15 | 9 | 5 | 37 | 54 |
| 2 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 30 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 14 | 50 |
| 3 | Suduva Marijampole | 30 | 13 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 50 |
| 4 | TransINVEST Vilnius | 30 | 14 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 49 |
| 5 | Banga | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 3 | 42 |
| 6 | Džiugas Telšiai | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | -3 | 42 |
| 7 | Panevėžys | 30 | 10 | 5 | 15 | -14 | 35 |
| 8 | Hegelmann Litauen | 31 | 4 | 14 | 13 | -22 | 26 |
| 9 | Šiauliai | 30 | 3 | 9 | 18 | -34 | 18 |
| 10 | FK Trakai | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is TransINVEST Vilnius win, at 49.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.