· Analysis updated 17:29 UTC
Trastevere vs Città di Anagni Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.51 expected goals for Trastevere and 1.49 for Città di Anagni, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Trastevere the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.6% probability
Expected goals
1.51 – 1.49
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Trastevere home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Trastevere to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 24% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.51 goals for Trastevere and 1.49 for Città di Anagni, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 58% and both teams to score at 60%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–28.3%
- 1–07.5%
- 0–17.4%
Recent form
Trastevere
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Aranova · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Città di Anagni · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Lodigiani · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Paganese · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ossese · 1-1 (D)
Città di Anagni
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Afragolese · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Latte Dolce · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Unipomezia · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Albalonga · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Certosa V. Campagnano · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · Trastevere 0-0 Città di Anagni (Serie D - Girone G)
- 2020-03-01T13:30:00.000Z · Trastevere 3-1 Città di Anagni (Serie D - Girone G)
- 2019-10-27T12:30:00.000Z · Trastevere 1-0 Città di Anagni (Serie D - Girone G)
Serie D - Girone G table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sarnese | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 17 |
| 2 | Monastir | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 16 |
| 3 | Paganese | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 13 |
| 4 | Certosa V. Campagnano | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 5 | Unipomezia | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 6 | Ossese | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 7 | Anzio | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Trastevere | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 11 |
| 9 | Città di Anagni | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Aranova | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 11 | Albalonga | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Afragolese | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Gelbison | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 14 | Budoni | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 15 | Sarrabus Ogliastra | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 16 | Latte Dolce | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Venafro | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
| 18 | Atletico Lodigiani | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.