Trat Provincial Stadium · Analysis updated 14:04 UTC
Trat FC vs Chainat Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Trat FC and 1.25 for Chainat, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Trat FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.8% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Trat FC home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Chainat away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Trat FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 25% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Trat FC and 1.25 for Chainat, a combined 2.78 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 1–09.5%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–17.8%
- 1–27.4%
Recent form
Trat FC
- 2026-04-25T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Bangkok · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Chainat · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-04-04T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Kasetsart FC · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-03-29T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Nakhon Si Thammarat · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-03-22T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Mahasarakham United · 2-0 (W)
Chainat
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Uttaradit · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-15T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Khon Kaen United · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Songkhla · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Esan Pattaya · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Thai League 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khon Kaen United | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 2 | Chainat | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 3 | Uttaradit | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 4 | Nong Bua Pitchaya | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 5 | Satun | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | Kanchanaburi | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Chiangmai United | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Police Tero | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Phrae United | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Nakhon Pathom | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Muang Loei United | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 12 | Chanthaburi | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 13 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 14 | Muangthong United | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | Esan Pattaya | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 8 |
| 16 | Songkhla | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 17 | Mahasarakham United | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Kasetsart FC | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.