San Marino Stadium · Analysis updated 06:02 UTC
Tre Fiori vs La Fiorita Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Tre Fiori and 0.90 for La Fiorita, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Tre Fiori the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tre Fiori win
47.2% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tre Fiori home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
La Fiorita away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tre Fiori to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 28% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Tre Fiori and 0.90 for La Fiorita, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.2%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–010.5%
- 2–09.6%
- 0–19.5%
Recent form
Tre Fiori
- 2026-10-23T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Tre Penne · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs San Giovanni · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Virtus · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Domagnano · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Fiorentino · 1-0 (W)
La Fiorita
- 2026-10-09T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Murata · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Domagnano · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Fiorentino · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs San Marino Academy · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Virtus · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Coppa Titano table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pennarossa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 2 | Virtus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 3 | Domagnano | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Folgore | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 5 | Tre Penne | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Cosmos | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Tre Fiori | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Juvenes / Dogana | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 9 | Fiorentino | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 10 | San Giovanni | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 11 | Faetano | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 12 | Libertas | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 13 | Cailungo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 14 | Murata | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tre Fiori win, at 47.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.