· Analysis updated 06:31 UTC
Tre Fiori vs Pennarossa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 4.30 expected goals for Tre Fiori and 1.11 for Pennarossa, a combined total of 5.41. That distribution gives Tre Fiori the largest share of the 1X2 market at 88%, with the draw at 7%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 87% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 4–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 88% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tre Fiori win
88.1% probability
Expected goals
4.30 – 1.11
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tre Fiori home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pennarossa away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
95%
Double chance 12
93%
Double chance X2
12%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 4–17.1%
- 3–16.6%
- 4–06.4%
- 5–16.1%
- 3–05.9%
Recent form
Tre Fiori
- 2026-10-23T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Tre Penne · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs San Giovanni · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Virtus · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Domagnano · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Fiorentino · 1-0 (W)
Pennarossa
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fiorentino · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Cosmos · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-09-09T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Cailungo · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Murata · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tre Fiori · 2-5 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · Tre Fiori 5-2 Pennarossa (Campionato)
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · Tre Fiori 1-1 Pennarossa (Campionato)
- 2026-02-11T20:15:00.000Z · Tre Fiori 0-0 Pennarossa (Campionato)
- 2025-10-21T18:45:00.000Z · Tre Fiori 3-0 Pennarossa (Coppa Titano)
- 2025-09-24T18:45:00.000Z · Tre Fiori 1-1 Pennarossa (Coppa Titano)
- 2025-03-15T14:00:00.000Z · Tre Fiori 3-0 Pennarossa (Campionato)
- 2024-11-24T14:00:00.000Z · Tre Fiori 6-1 Pennarossa (Campionato)
- 2024-02-03T14:00:00.000Z · Tre Fiori 3-0 Pennarossa (Campionato)
- 2023-10-04T19:15:00.000Z · Tre Fiori 3-0 Pennarossa (Campionato)
- 2023-02-26T14:00:00.000Z · Tre Fiori 2-0 Pennarossa (Campionato)
Campionato table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Folgore | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 18 |
| 2 | Virtus | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 16 |
| 3 | Tre Penne | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 16 |
| 4 | Tre Fiori | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 13 |
| 5 | Cosmos | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 13 |
| 6 | La Fiorita | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
| 7 | Fiorentino | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 8 | Libertas | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 9 | Domagnano | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 10 | Cailungo | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 11 | San Giovanni | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 12 | Murata | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 13 | Pennarossa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -13 | 4 |
| 14 | Juvenes / Dogana | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| 15 | Faetano | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -14 | 3 |
| 16 | San Marino Academy | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -13 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tre Fiori win, at 88.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 4–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 87%.
A 88% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.