· Analysis updated 17:15 UTC
Tre Fiori vs Virtus Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Tre Fiori and 1.42 for Virtus, a combined total of 3.02. That distribution gives Tre Fiori the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.0% probability
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.42
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tre Fiori home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Virtus away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tre Fiori to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 24% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.60 goals for Tre Fiori and 1.42 for Virtus, a combined 3.02 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–27.9%
- 1–07.8%
- 0–16.9%
Recent form
Tre Fiori
- 2026-09-18T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Virtus · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Domagnano · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Fiorentino · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Faetano · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pennarossa · 5-2 (W)
Virtus
- 2026-09-18T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Tre Fiori · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Libertas · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Murata · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Fiorentino · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs La Fiorita · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Campionato table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Folgore | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 15 |
| 2 | Tre Penne | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 15 |
| 3 | Virtus | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 13 |
| 4 | Tre Fiori | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 12 |
| 5 | Cosmos | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 6 | La Fiorita | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 7 | Libertas | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Fiorentino | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 |
| 9 | Domagnano | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 10 | Juvenes / Dogana | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Cailungo | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 12 | San Giovanni | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 3 |
| 13 | Murata | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 14 | Pennarossa | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -13 | 3 |
| 15 | San Marino Academy | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -9 | 2 |
| 16 | Faetano | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -14 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.