· Analysis updated 16:41 UTC
Tre Penne vs Juvenes / Dogana Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Tre Penne and 1.05 for Juvenes / Dogana, a combined total of 2.72. That distribution gives Tre Penne the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tre Penne win
51.8% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tre Penne home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Juvenes / Dogana away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tre Penne to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 24% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for Tre Penne and 1.05 for Juvenes / Dogana, a combined 2.72 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 1–011.0%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–09.2%
- 0–16.9%
Recent form
Tre Penne
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Domagnano · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Juvenes / Dogana · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Cailungo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Juvenes / Dogana · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Cosmos · 2-0 (W)
Juvenes / Dogana
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tre Penne · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Folgore · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Tre Penne · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Libertas · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-28T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Faetano · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Coppa Titano table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pennarossa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 2 | Virtus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 3 | Domagnano | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Folgore | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 5 | Tre Penne | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Cosmos | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Tre Fiori | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Juvenes / Dogana | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 9 | Fiorentino | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 10 | San Giovanni | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 11 | Faetano | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 12 | Libertas | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 13 | Cailungo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 14 | Murata | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tre Penne win, at 51.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.